The FCC can go to hell and will never have my support again.

Looks like favorable decision soon

The contents of the letters from the politicians indicate little or no knowledge of the details of the concessions and restrictions already offered by the two companies. They smack of political grandstanding at a time when the senators and congressmen should be tending to the bigger problems currently facing the country...the ones they were elected to handle. The FCC should be left to do the job it was created to do.

Agree on the note about letting FCC its job. As for this prediction, it just decreased the likelihood of decision that decision may be made soon as poiticians get involved.

The FCC has acted irresponsibly throughout the proposed merger... that is their only obvious action. Martin's recent comment (about the obvious) that the original approval prohibited the two companies becoming one was a no-brainer from the start. That he only recently stated the obvious shows a CYA mindset instead of responsible oversight. I do not feel sorry for the FCC because this is a difficult issue. If they want easy, they should try to get their baseball games, basketball games and football games on one satellite radio... oh, wait, can't be done. Ooops...

Sirius CEO says FCC to approve deal by end of July

Wow, David, that last link you posted seems to be a surprise death nail in this prediction's coffin.

Good lord, -20% in one day. I think Bradley has spoken. ;)

I guess I'm still flabbergasted at the slow delay of this merger. The panel boasted that it is imperative to make sure the merger is in the best interests of the public; however, this delay seems to be a contradiction in regards to looking out for the public's interest. If the FCC continues to delay it appears that at least one of the Satellite companies may go out of business and affect several million subscribers and investors in this company. The DOJ as well as many other organizations; even most of the fcc panel agreed upon conditions made...now some law makers want more. Why and why now are they opposing this so strongly? I understand politicians need some "free radio" in order to further their agenda; however, haven't the companies already made reasonable concessions? Let the merger happen. This delay again for another month doesn't seem to be reasonable or prudent.

@Bradley, I concur on your pros/cons on resetting networth. Well analyzed.

@Eric, the only uber-giant at IS right now is Bradley! I think the cons are more than the pros for resetting. As long as you put checks/controls in place for betting large sums in the algorithm, then it should be ok. Note that it is much harder to get significant % gains when you're an uber-giant.

@Shiv, this is NOT a zero sum game. How do I know that?I have made the 1st bets and seeing the different changes in odds. I have made the only bet before it is judged.

As far as I know, the algorithm is fairly complex with bet thresholds to prevent it from breakage. That said, it is highly unlikely the true nature of the algorithm will be revealed. I disagree with the conversion to points (that is a kludgy mess). I also disagree with fraction of prediction's pot (as bets are made and cashed out, the pot changes). It is not entirely impossible (although extremely unlikely) that the last action taken on a prediction is a cashout making the pot empty. We can't rely on rewarding creator of prediction based # bets either (as it can be easily gamed). In short, the current way is good and sufficient.

You all raise a lot of interesting points here. Shivs comment, "what about predictions that carry over quarters" is a really good point. But, we are also working on an "experience" system right now, and we may be able to convert networth into experience points (any D&D folks in the house?). But, again, open predictions make this a little bit tricky. So, Bradley, the current rank labels will be a thing of the past in the coming months. And, what is currently an "Industry Maker" will be given certain site authority unseen today. You will be channeling the power of Gray Skull, I can guarantee. More to come on that. Oh, and hopefully in the next two-three weeks we'll be opening up a site blog - where we'll announce new site features, and can discuss our ideas with you all there, rather than on the prediction/news comment sections, which I know you all have found to be odd.

In any case, all good food for thought. Thanks, guys.

@Eric, might I suggest using the frequency when winning bets were made relatively to losing bets. Another mechanism would be for IS members to give vote of confidence to another (either through the information provided via comments, inter-connection advices, etc). Another factor would be the suggestions posted, the for/against votes on the suggestion , etc.

I just sent this to all of the members of the FCC except for Copps. This man is too far gone. He cites documents that were drafted in 1934. Anyway I drafted this earfull after reading more bullshit regarding increased concessions demanded bt Mr. Markey after nearly 500 days of deliberation.
_______________________________________________________________________________

Mr. Markey has the balls to send Mr. Martin a letter after nearly 500 days. Doesn’t that appear odd? ANOTHER ASSHOLE POLITICIAN LOOKING TO MAKE A NAME FOR HIMSELF. HE IS COSTING THE GENERAL PUBLIC MORE THAN WHAT HE CLAIMS HE IS TRYING TO CURB.

THIS MAN IS ILINFORMED AND ANOTHER SELF SERVING POLITICIAN AS IS BECOMING THE NORM. RINGS A BELL.

Edward Markey - You don’t deserve being acknowledged with a title - YOU SELF SERVING BASTARD - WHERE THE FUCK WERE TOU SINCE Feb 2007? Just one of the good old boys now when you see an opening to get some notoriety.

It appears that most of the politicians that are voicing their objection to the mergers have had their heads up either their own ass or someone else’s. You all should be investigated on the likelihood of collusion and wrongful ethics. The SEC as of yesterday has finally announced that they will investigate the short sellers and naked traders. It’s about time. Didn’t they see the light when Sedona Corp out of King of Prussia nearly went under due to naked trading and had to cut their. Staff CUT from 98 to 16. Of course not they are just a small fry compare to LEH. It’s apparent that the don’t matter, or the dozens of other companies that were ignored and allowed to be raped. These press conferences are a joke. They can’t or don’t ask the questions that need to be answered. Do you want me to cite a dozen cases where they previous should have? Why are you assholes so concerned in saving free radio as you call it? I refer to it as terrestrial radio and a piece of crap for a quality product. Like the old saying goes good help ain't cheap and cheap help ain't good. I am not going to waste any more of my time with another dimwit politician like you. However, I will ask you one and only one question. Where have you publicly voiced you opinion on this merger prior to this recent act of dementia. Do us all a favor and call it a career. It is obvious that you aren't capable of formulating a logical thought process anymore. It's amazing that I have crossed paths with so many day to day working people who have a better grasp on reality than you jackasses. You are scum and after reading the book "NOT FIT TO COMMAND", so is that horseshit of a Senator Kerry. That son of a bitch attempted to portray himself as a war hero. He is a disgrace to every man and women who wore the uniform. I my self served for 26 years and would love the opportunity to tell him to his face in front of a large audience on how much of a disgrace he is to the ones who gave their life for family and country. Shame on him and you and others like you as well. I will blog you to death and let others aware of your tainted position. Oh by the way where did you get 6 years, did you pull that out of your ass where you found your head? Also let terrestrial foot their bill for quality content. Since ever they have penny pinched their budgets and provided us an inferior product. I didn’t even resort to using the word SHIT.

Here’s the rest of your bullshit as written:

But in a letter to Martin on Tuesday, Market said the agency should require that all new satellite radio receivers be built with technology enabling them to also receive high-definition terrestrial radio signals.
Markey also said the FCC should extend the price caps to six years and increase the number of channel set-asides.
"Only through such a mandate will the commission adequately ensure that competition in digital radio services is as robust as possible and that free, over-the-air radio remains a vibrant marketplace alternative for consumers well into the future," Markey wrote.

Why don’t we ask of every company to support their competitors? Let’ ask the oil companies, gas companies, and coal companies to spend money in each others industry. Get real. You are a buffoon. Let the market place decide if it wants free radio as t has been shoved up our asses forever or give them a choice to pay for quality content. This is America isn’t it? By the time you and others like you are finished we won’t even recognize the old girl. Also who the fuck are you to give any part of my wealth to every Tom, Dick and Harry opportunist who wants a part of the pie when they haven’t put any skin into the game. The used to shoot folks like you in olden days. You must be high on medication.
I see that you are a big wig in telecommunications. I also have dabbed in the same for 32 years. How I would like to match my prowess in this field with you and show everyone out there in blog land how much you really have a grasp in this field of expertise.

THE PUBLIC IS GETTING SCREWED BY CHOKING THE LIFE OUT OF THIS MERGER. THE END PRODUCT WILL GET COMPROMISED AND NEVER BE WHAT IT COULD HAVE BEEN. YOU FOLKS REALLY SHAFTED US AGAIN.
The only place where truth is brought forth is town meetings and I have read where the FCC screwed that up as well.

DOES ANYONE HAVE THE INTEGRITY TO REPLY OR BETTER YET JUST DO RIGHT THING. WASHINTON IS LOSING THE TRUST OF ITS PEOPLE AND WHY NOT REVOLT; WE ALL SEEM TO THINK IT WAS OK IN 1776. AS UNLIKELY IT WILL EVER HAPPEN, THERE WILL BE STINGING PROTEST FROM THE PEOPLE IF WE DON’T WISE UP. IT’S SINFUL.

IF ONE PERSON STOOD UP AND FACED ALL THE POLITCAL BULLSHIT, HE OR SHE WOULD BE EMBRACED BY THE PEOPLE. THEY WOULD SPEND COUNTLESS HOURS JUST TO BE PART OF IT.

@Shiv, that is a good suggestion. I second that.

@Shiv, we have that capability (regarding the ability to create a custom starting price/%), but before we launched the site we pulled it down because we feared it would be way too subjective. Some might post a "sure thing" suggestion at 100%, thus making it nearly worthless. It's a little tricky.

@Eric: A couple of the captions on things indicated that you had a way of setting the starting percentage. I assumed it was an idea that hadn't been implemented rather than one that had been disabled.

It would be good to have the suggester offer up a proposed starting point. The comments during that phase could indicate where the rest of the community feels it should be set. Then the editor who actually turns it into a real prediction could use that as input when setting the inital value. Perhaps be conservative (closer to 50%) to start and then, as editors gain experience, start shifting more predictions to inital values further from the mid-point.

At worst it should be at least as good as what we have now (inital values always set to 50%) and should get better as we all get used to the added functionality.

Really it's unlikely that we should have any prediction start with a value outside of ~30-70%. If it's known to be beyond that to start it's unlikely to be a fun prediction to play in any case.

As Shiv points out, "Sure things" shouldn't be made into predictions in any case (read the recent suggestions -- there's one there that GOOG passes MSFT in revenue in the next two years for an example). One place where a "sure thing" might be worth having is as an experiment. What is the time value of S$? Set a prediction that is guaranteed to close at S$100 on date X. How far out is it worth locking up portfolio value on a guaranteed payout?

Latest ... Democratic Federal Communications Commission commissioner Michael Copps on Monday voted against a proposed merger of XM Satellite Radio and Sirius. Although this was fairly expected, it puts additional pressure of commissioners Adelstein and Tate to cast their vote.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fcc-member-votes-against-xm-sirius...
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/xm-q2-in-line-still-waiting-on-fcc
http://www.forbes.com/topstories/feeds/reuters/2008/07/22/2008-07-22T210...

@Eric, the news article indicates a tentative approval (that means Tate indicated her conditions for her to approve deal and XM/Sirius has agreed to the terms).All that is left is the formality of having it all done on paper. I believe that in the spirit of the prediction, the criteria has been sufficiently met with a 3-2 for approval of the deal with a few days to spare.

Just to clarify, are we waiting for the deal to change from 'tentative' to official? If yes, does that have to happen before August, or is it okay if the confirmation comes out after July. I mean, though the deal may have been made already, what if official word comes out next month?

And, off-topic, I'd really rather get some sort of info on the Hulu prediction, frankly. :s

@Eric: I'm unclear on what you're saying. The next FCC meeting is scheduled to take place August 1st. If there's an agreement in place now (probable, but not officially announced) to vote next month in favor, does this close favorably on unfavorably? Does it make a difference if there is no official announcement between now and then end of the month (indeed, in that case there likely would NEVER be official confirmation that the deal had been struck in July).

I'm not sure how, absent specific, official, confirmation in the next six days this approval can be said to have happened in time to fulfill the prediction requirements. Especially if the vote doesn't actually take place until next month.

Bradley and Kevin have a point - "Approval would mean that it's an official FCC decision", which will only happen next month. What say you, Eric?

I beg to differ. FCC votes can me made prior to formal announcement of the decision with all the paperwork and language set within. The prediction merely states an approval by FCC which implies a majority agreement/vote. These agreements/votes are/will be reported by mainstream media and should be accepted for judgement use.

If I were to move the closing date to August 1 (which is tempting) I would break the original intent of this prediction in my view. And, Kevin would kill me. :P