Submitted by David Kuan10.07.2008
Thunderdome
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This prediction is closed and is in the process of being judged.
The App Store has been wildly successful for Apple. In a mere 7 days after launch of iPhone, the App Store experienced over 10M applications downloaded.
At the Let's Rock event on September 9, Steve Jobs announced yet another milestone for the App Store with over 3,000 applications available and over 100M downloads.
The App Store is also developer friendly as the App Store is seeing the addition of approximately 500 new applications per week added to the library.
Additionally, as Apple pushes for 18M iPhones shipped worldwide in 2008 as well as several millions more of iPod Touch, it is anticipated that the number of downloaded applications will continue rise at a faster pace.
The prediction is that Apple App Store will see at least 1,000,000,000 downloads by MacWorld Expo 2009.
Current Community Consensus 11%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Jan 05 2009 | Current Consensus: | 10.91% | Total Bets: | 30 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 58.66% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 10.91% |
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Lets see. A billion downloads divided by 18 million iPhones/iPod Touches out there? That would be an average of 55 applications per device. I'm going to bet against this one purely on the math.
@Tay, there is a major difference between iTunes songs download vs App Store application downloads. Songs are already for a fee. There are nearly 1000 free applications and 3200 fee applications. Even if the math is right, 55 is only 5% of the available apps out there (not counting the 500 new applications/week addition). A typical mobile phone user would never download so many applications. However, iPhone and iPod Touch are not typical mobile phone users. I suspect the consensus to swing left and right making it much more interesting to play.
According to http://www.engadget.com/2008/10/21/apple-q408-results-out-6-9m-iphones-s..., the App Store is only about to hit the 200M download mark. That is a far cry from the 1B mark with only a little more than 2 months to go.
Here's a new data point as of today 10/21/2008. Steve Jobs says the 200 millionth app will be downloaded tomorrow. That's 102 days since its launch on July 11 and 76 days until MacWorld. I'm liking my bet against the prediction.
Apple: 300 million iPhone apps downloaded
http://www.macworld.com/article/137352/2008/12/300million.html
@Tay, I think you're probably right. While impressive, it's simply not fast enough to meet the goals of this prediction (IMO).
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