Submitted by The Standard06.03.2008
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Betting closes on Sep 30 2008
We’ve already got a prediction going about Carl Icahn’s proxy bid, but reports surfaced today that if the activist investor is successful in his bid, the first order of the day will be to remove Jerry Yang as Yahoo’s CEO.
As Icahn recently put it: "I am amazed at the lengths that Jerry Yang and the board went to entrench themselves in this situation," and it has been clear for some time now that there is no love lost between the two (Icahn and Yang).
This is a prediction that Jerry Yang will be ousted as Yahoo’s CEO by October 1, 2008. Now, a few caveats. First, if Jerry quits, resigns, or otherwise leaves the company without being forced to do so, this prediction will not be judged favorably. Second, corporate exits are too often subject to a range of soft euphemisms for what actually goes down, so in so judging we might have to read between the lines, and in so betting you should be aware of the human element involved. Though, to be honest, if Icahn is involved we doubt there will be little doubt about how it all plays out;) Third caveat: if Jerry is ousted, but not as a result of a successful proxy fight (i.e. the current Board kicks him out on their own) this will still be grounds for favorable judgment. That is – this is a prediction that Jerry will be ousted – but it is not inclusive of who (or what, for that mater) does the ousting, so long as it is just that – a forcible removal.
Question or need clarification before placing your bet? Let us know in the comments below.
Photo by Yodel Anecdotal
Current Community Consensus 17%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Sep 30 2008 | Current Consensus: | 16.80% | Total Bets: | 82 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 57.44% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 16.80% |
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Looks like Carl might be warming up to Jerry & Co:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080616/icahn_yahoo.html
Make this prediction simple and forget the reason he leaves. This is simple: what's the likelihood he's not the CEO on Sept 30? According to the NY Times, pretty good: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/14/business/14nocera.html
In accordance to the prediction caveats, if Yang resigns, judgement is not favorable. Looks like judgement may be near. http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/rumor-jerry-yang-to-resign
Bad rumor. http://www.247wallst.com/2008/07/yahoo-inc-denie.html and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/09/yahoo-ceo-jerry-yang-to-r_n_111...
Looks like status quo will be the outcome at Yahoo for the time being...
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- 4:00pm 08/01/2008, Yahoo Inc. said late Friday that all its current board members were re-elected at its annual meeting, but key members had a double-digit percentage of shares withheld from the voting. About 20.5% of shares were withheld in re-electing Chairman Roy Bostock to the board, and 14.6% of shares were withheld in voting for Chief Executive Jerry Yang. Other board members with a double-digit percentage of shares withheld were Ronald Burkle with 18.8% withheld, Arthur Kern with 22.1% withheld, and Gary Wilson with 18.2% withheld.
The misleading headline on this story is extremely unprofessional.
New doubts surface around Yang
Revised Yahoo tally shows much higher protest vote against board members...
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- 4:00pm, YHOO confirmed late Tuesday that Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc., an independent voting intermediary, made errors in reporting votes from Yahoo's annual shareholder's meeting on Aug. 1. When Broadridge reported voting results for "withholds," a truncation error occurred in reporting share numbers that exceeded eight digits, according to Yahoo. The board seat tabuluation has been corrected to 33.7% withheld shares for Chief Executive Jerry Yang from 14.6% and 39.6% withheld for Chairman Roy Bostock rather than 20.5%.
Jerry's days are numbered. The only question is how many. My opinion is Jerry will revert to his Chief Yahoo role and a seasoned CEO will be brought in (perhaps Jonathan Miller, ex-CEO of AOL)?.
From http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/jerry-must-go#slide_4
YAHOO CEO CANDIDATES
Bob Pittman. A talented, driven, and highly experienced media operator who turned around AOL in the mid-1990s and built it into a powerhouse. Deep understanding of consumers, brands, and advertising. Extremely demanding and obsessed with meeting financial targets. Not afraid to restructure the company or fire thousands of people. Failed at integrating AOL and Time Warner, but anyone would have.
Dan Rosensweig. Former Yahoo COO. Plenty of operational experience, albeit at the helm of smaller companies. Deeply connected in the industry. Detached enough to be able to provide a fresh look, and, we expect, make the tough decisions.
Sue Decker. Most people we talk to say Sue's days at Yahoo are nearly done--in part because of her own decisions and in part because she's so closely associated with Jerry. If we were in charge of Yahoo's CEO search, however, we would want to hear what Sue has to say about this. She is light on operational experience, which may be a fatal weakness. But she knows the company and industry cold, she's smart as hell, and she is capable of inspiring great confidence.
Jon Miller. Made bold decisions at helm of AOL during a hellish period, and undoubtedly learned much from the experience. Knows industry, media, and Yahoo cold.
Jeff Weiner. Well-respected within Yahoo and departure perceived as a major loss. We do not know enough about his strategic and operational abilities to have a clear opinion here.
I read this in the Valley's gossip rag today, concerning how the original vote totals were misreported originally: "The corrected total more than doubles the percentage of shareholders who withheld their votes from Yang, from 14.6 percent to 33.7 percent. Yahoo chairman Roy Bostock went from 20.5 percent withheld to 39.5 percent. At those levels of withheld votes, there is ample precedent for them to step down.
Michael Eisner stepped down as Disney's chairman after having 43 percent of the votes withheld; Steve Case left Time Warner's board amid a shareholder revolt, and still drew a 22 percent protest. With the correct numbers in, Yang and Bostock's position has changed from comfortable to perilous — showing that votes count in business as well as in politics."
@Eric, exactly. Situation is not looking good for Yang. It shows disatisfaction not only on the handling of the MSFT case but the lack of results from his announced plan when he assumed the CEO role.
At the current %, this is a good risk/reward bet for favorable judgement. Back up the truck and load up?
With Icahn now official on the board and two appointments on August 15, the dynamics for change will speed up (http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080806/yahoo_icahn.html?.v=3)
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