Interesting... Not sure how it fits with the prediction or the site.

IS Staff: Are you a bunch of energy barons in disguise?

Someone needs to give Angela a hug, or maybe tell her to trade in her van for a scooter.

Angela – Thanks for your enlightening comments. It’s amazing that the systems of commerce & exchange, which have been around since the dawn of Man (and Woman…you’re probably a feminist as well, so I’ll try to preemptively avoid being called sexist), are only now “evil” because they are causing poor little Americans to spend more of their money on fuel than they would like. It’s a free market, if high prices are not justified they will come down. Was it Satan who caused Internet stocks to soar in the late 1990s? Or was it a speculative frenzy that led to an asset class being overvalued for a short period of time before more rational minds brought down the value of overhyped stocks? I can tell from your posting that you are not schooled in Economics, Business or Finance so I’m going to give you a pass since you are clearly in over your head, but before you post a ridiculous comment like yours on a financial blog you might want to think about the fact that most of the people reading it are way more educated than you and not susceptible to the ignorance of blindly blaming “the companies” for the price of something you buy going up.

@David, you're right. We debated about this, actually, but ultimately decided that the "trickle-down" effects could ultimately influence the tech and Internet economies, which are our main focus. Consumer spending alone could greatly impact our news/prediction beat over the next 6-12 months. And, as oil prices climb, consumer spending may fall.

It just seems too important to ignore when, like you say, there are "multitudes of variables" that effect this developing story.

JT: Exactly who said you were educated in economics or made you the great "sage" of oil futures and speculation? Getting a C- in your High School senior economics class doesn't cut it. I would venture to state that you are a typical little greedy "light day trader" who thinks it's good that Banking Investment firms like Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley are rising the cost of oil for quick cash. Gee net portfolios of these "companies" futures trading divisions rose how much? From 17 billion in 2002 to 260 billion last year? You have the impudence to call Angela out about her comments. It's people like myself who are sick of pure and simple GREED at the expense of everyone else. Why don't you post your "wit" and "free market" ideas to the 3000 Continental Airline workers who just lost their jobs, or the thousands of Truck drivers and small business owners suffering because of a bunch of snot-nosed Wall Street elitist working, and I use the word "working" generously at Goldman Sachs Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase or Morgan Stanley, and playing the market like some Craps game in Las Vegas. I defend Angela because she's right, her approach may not be "educated" to your standards but as the old saying goes, "I may not be able to build a clock, but I can still tell time" The skyrocketing cost of oil shows to anyone pinched by it that you know damn good and well your simply being ripped off! You think because a person wears a suit and tie he can't be a crook? Spare me the free market line, this is just another example of how the "free market" only exists to those who want to control it for their own profit margins. Thanks to the FCMTA of 2000, with it's proud lobby groups of ENRON and with their whore ex-senator Phil Gram of Texas, they loop holed the pre-existing law set out in 1936 and now allows big investment banks like the afforementioned, to circumvent the CFTC legally and buy oil futures through OTC trading without even putting money down, and selling them at a profit after they have moved the prices upward. If history serves us well JT, it sure sounds like what they were doing it good old 1929 to me! It's not surprising that just recently the CFTC has even bothered to investigate any malfesence with these speculators. But why would they really look into anything seriously when Bush's very own White House Chief of Staff , and former Goldman Sachs alumni, Joshua Bolten, and your Secretary to the US Treasury is also a former employee to Goldman Sachs. Who's your daddy?

Personally JT I could out wit and argue you any day in the week. My only remorse is that I couldn't rap and lead pipe around your head, maybe it would knock what few brain cells you have working, to work correctly, but I doubt it!

P.S. who is your favorite person, Ebenezer Scrooge or Gordon Gekko?

Funny, I thought this was a technology predictions site.

I actually majored in economics in college and have a graduate degree in Finance as well. What is your formal economic trading?

Not sure where you are getting your "net portfolio" statistics of $17 bln -> $260 bln...could you clarify? Is this total notional futures position exposure of these banks? If so, you do realize how netting of positons works, right? And please don't cite the SocGen debacle as an example of "netting gone wrong" - when the positions on one side of a hedge is fake, that doesn't count.

Look, I suffer from high prices just like everyone else. I hate the fact that gas costs well over $4/gallon. I know that inflation is a social ill that unfairly burdens the lower economic classes since a 50% increase in gas prices may account for a 10% increase in their annual budget vs. a 1% increase for someone who makes a lot more money. But I also know enough about economic forces to know that it's stupid & pointless to go blaming the big, bad Wall Street speculators for a macroeconomic shift that has led to the price of a commodity going up.

Do you really think that all the people who trade energy all around the world got together and said "Alright, let's stick it to the little guy and raise prices!! Ha ha, it's good to be rich and powerful and manipulate the world's energy markets!!" Do you know how absolutely asinine that sounds?

To directly address a few more of your points:
1) Yes, it sucks for the people at Continental that lost their jobs. But the US airline industry isn't exactly known for being the most well-run, efficient industry. Cutting off some fat (again I apologize for the people that are losing their jobs, but that is the term that is used in biz-speak) might do some good to return the industry to some measure of profitability at some point down the road. It's a business, not a charity. Sorry to be cold but it's true.
2) The people that work at some of the banks you mention (GS, JPM, MS) are extremely smart and shrewd businessmen and they work very hard at what they do. Whether or not you like the business they are in you should respect their intelligence, intellect & business savvy.
3) There are plenty of derivatives that you can establish a position in without putting money down (outisde of collateral, of course). In fact, for many derivatives that is the exact reason why people utilize them. Why is that a problem? The holder of the position has leverage, sure, but as long as he/she understands that leverage I don't see a problem with that.
4) If you don't like how expensive oil is make efforts to find a substitute for it in your consumption basket. It's not your "right" to have cheap gas, despite what many Americans seems to believe.
5) Why is it a problem that former emplyees of Goldman Sachs work in the government? Goldman is one of the most respected companies in any line of business in the US and their employees are very talented & smart, there's a reason why former employees are hand-picked for roles in government.
6) Regarding the 2 fictional characters you mention, I prefer Gordon Gekko to Scrooge. Michael Douglas put in a Tour de Force playing that role in Wall Street.

To the Managing editor:

Your website is a joke. You allow callous discriminatory remarks made by Morons like JT and others yet you take off sound facts proving points to refute his absurd assumptions posted because someone uses the word "pug" or "minority" Like the oil futures traders, your website is a cancer. Further discussion, especially with JT is pointless because his very reasoning rests on an immoral premises that profit supersedes human welfare. There is nothing wrong with making a profit. But to what extent and not to the detriment of our society. That is the true core value of a FREE SOCIETY, not the scrupulous business ethics of the "Gordon Gekko's" you, and this website so proudly subscribe to. Which is why opinions from JT can always be beaten, (even if your weak skinned editing won't publish them) because they are supported by rise in unethical and immoral behavior, which lies the true tragedy because them like you and JT will always have no souls!

You know I don't get edited at bakerradio.com, at least their forum has real discussions, and when a guy acts like an ass you can call him out on it without the internet police coming in and throwing their own sense of morality down your throat!

@ Ian Lamont: well put.
Perhaps this conversation could be steered back towards the topic at hand (oil prices), and we could agree to leave talk of "wrapping lead pipes" around each other's heads for another time.

Crude oil broke $140 at NYMEX So much volatility. There is sufficient supply out there (with increased production by Arab and increased inventoried stockpile in US), the pending bill to limit futures speculation (which will have an adverse effect on oil future prices), and 5 remaining trading days to July 4 (NYMEX is closed on July 4), I really don't see the price breaking $150 except if the US currency continues to devalue making commodity prices more expensive.

This is getting a little too close for comfort. Crude broke $142 today on weakness of US dollars. Word on the street is that Fed's inaction on interest rate opens up potential US dollar swings if European Fed counterpart announces rate hike. Currency is one of those that is subject to mass speculation and commodity pricing is directly related to it..

At this point, it is not a question of whether it will break $150 mark but when. 4 more days to go ... who has the guts to hold their bets until judgement?

As for next administration, energy issue will be up there with the economy issue. Any economists out there that can comment on macroeconomic impacts of energy and the impacts to the US economy?

Oil futures hit a record high of $143 today.

@Eric, I meant the number of days which NYMEX is open for trading (prediction is using closing price on NYMEX). After today, there will only be 4 days (June 30, Jul 1-3). July 4th trading elsewhere will not be reflected on NYMEX until Jul 7 (after judgement day). With the current volatility in the currency market, a $7 spike over 4 days is not improbable.

I suspect a significant portion of bets are cashed out but the way the prediction is set up .. judgement day can be any day any time but no later than July 5. What happens if oil price breaks the $150 barrier at NYMEX closing before July 5 but judgement has not been made and bets against are cashed out? Can the gain/loss be adjusted?

Correction ... it is a 60% swing!

Crude closed at $143.57 after peaking at $144.13

@Eric, it could still happen although it is not probable for it to go up by $6.44 in one day. NYMEX is open on July 3 but not July 4. Markets elsewhere are open on July 4. However, these trades won't be recorded at NYMEX until July 7. So, in accordance to the prediction, there is only 1 day left.

Disclosure: I no longer have a position on this as I do not think it is worth risking 100% betting capital for a potential 5% additional winnings.