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Second Life usage will not break 40 million user hours per month by the end of 2008

The Standard
Comments 6
This prediction is closed and is in the process of being judged.
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Second Life has grew to a "population" of more than 12 million in January of this year, with residents spending more than 28 million hours in-world that month, according to parent company Linden Lab.

Seond Life

While those numbers reflected enourmous growth from January 2007, they also indicated that residents are spending less time in world, on a per-resident basis -- 2.3 hours/resident in January 2008, compared to nearly 3.5 hours/resident in January 2007.

The Industry Standard predicts that growth will continue to slow in 2008, and the number of total monthly hours will not break 40 million by the end of 2008.

This prediction will be judged by reviewing the public figures that Linden Lab makes available at this location. Note that the figures for December might not be made available until early 2009.

(This prediction is part of The Industry Standard special feature, Opinion: 10 'Net services that will succeed, and 10 that will probably fail. To see the related article, click here. To read the rest of the special feature, and see the many related predictions, click here.)

Current Community Consensus 90%

Prediction Statistics

Betting Closes:Dec 23 2008Current Consensus:89.57%Total Bets:20
Today's Change:
0%
Life Time High:89.57%
Life Time Low:50.00%
Price History

Comments

That's an easy one. 40,000,000 is one of those 2006/07 frenzy mode figures. Now the hype has settles and growth is steady, it'll probably reach around 36,000,000 by Jan 2009.


I spent maybe 2 hours per day in sl, but I spent about 5-6 hours related to SL activities: blogging, content creating, flickr community of sl artists, emailing to sl friends. Are those hours also taken into account?


Is this including the 34 logins per day per user from the viewer crashing, or losing connection on teleporting to a new SIM?

Is it also considering the people using 23 accounts and camping at artificial traffic sites for 10L an hour?

SL is cheap advertising. For them to have 1 sim and nothing ingame telling about it is stupid. Also stupid is selling ingame clothing to 2 peopel a day for $1 each. Sell fecking subscriptions so you can charge more for your magazine ads! DUH


@TIS, given that SecondLife lags by 2 months on reporting such metric, I recommend keeping the bet open until February to avoid bets being frozen for over 2 months.


Hmm.. Possibly.


Seems like a few folks are willing to have the $ frozen for 2 months on this bet.


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