A recent BusinessWeek article quotes from Moe Tanabian, senior principal at IBB Consulting, talking about features of the rumored HTC Dream, potentially the first phone to ship that will use Google's Android operating system.

One bit in particular jumps out:

"The phone will come with Google’s advertising software pre-installed. Customers who opt in to receive mobile ads from Google may be offered to buy the phone for a lower price, and may also pay lower monthly service fees. The Google platform will serve ads based on your interests and location, provided by the phone."

This is a prediction that the 'Dream' will come with some form of subsidy in exchange for optional advertising. Either the initial purchase price will be discounted or the on-going monthly service charges will be discounted (or both) if the consumer opts in (or fails to opt out) of Google-served advertsing through the phone.

This prediction will be judged at 0% if any of a) there is no mobile advertising included, b) there is no financial incentive for the owner of the phone, or c) there is no ability to opt out of the advertising.

This prediction will be scheduled to close November 15th, but can be judged upon release of the phone and announcement of such pricing options. At the discretion of TIS staff, it may be closed and judged earlier upon official announcement of up-coming pricing plans, even prior to actual release.

reference article: http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/08/googles...