Submitted by Bradley Baker06.25.2008
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Betting closes on Sep 30 2008
Various groups, including most notably Microsoft, are likely to express concerns to the Department of Justice about the recently-announced advertising partnership between Yahoo! and Google.
Those companies have publicly stated that they don't believe regulatory approval is necessary, but that in a show of good faith they intend to seek it prior to the commencement of activities under the deal.
This is a prediction that the partnership deal will be thrown out by the DoJ and/or FTC.
There has been some recent movement in this story here. This prediction will be judged after Yahoo and Google officially receive the blessing of the U.S. federal government.
Current Community Consensus 45%Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Sep 30 2008 | Current Consensus: | 45.02% | Total Bets: | 15 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 54.98% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 45.02% |
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DOJ finds cause for concerns for the deal
Yes, the DOJ does plenty of hand wringing. Maybe I'm feeling particularly cynical today, but usually big business wins.
"This prediction will be judged after Yahoo and Google officially receive the blessing of the U.S. federal government. "
This makes the ROI indeterminate.What happens if this drags on like XM/Sirius case? Would hate to have $ frozen on such a prediction :(
My original intent was that if the deal starts after the voluntary 3.5 month delay (plus additional voluntary delays from Yahoo!/Google) and isn't halted by the government (in the guise of one of the various agencies/Congress/etc.) that this should be judged at 0%. The closing date was selected to reflect that timeframe.
That there was a possibility of long-term freeze did not escape me when I originally wrote it. If this goes into a suspended state where the DoJ (etc.) are continuing to examine the deal and Yahoo! and Google continue to delay actually starting, this prediction should remain unjudged.
Looking at it right now, I was imprecise in my language. I specified DoJ or FTC. I would also consider a ban from Congress, etc. as also deserving a 100% judgment. Given that I didn't write it that way I would have no problems with the official interpretation being that only actions from those two bodies count, however.
Eric- perhaps you could issue a clarification on whether other (Federal only?) governmental action would also count for this?
@Bradley, thanks for the clarification.
Fodder for DOJ
http://www.adweek.com/aw/content_display/news/digital/e3i1e343e9ca0d6f68...
http://www.precursorblog.com/content/new-evidence-google-search-bias-its...
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